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When dawn was breaking the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained confined in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. They had been 12 hours in difficult discussions, with dozens ministers representing multiple blocs of countries including the poorest nations to the richest economies.

Patience wore thin, the air heavy as weary delegates faced up to the harsh reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations hovered near the brink of complete breakdown.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

Scientific evidence has shown for well over a century, the CO2 emissions produced by burning fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, during nearly three decades of yearly climate meetings, the crucial requirement to halt fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a agreement made two years ago at Cop28 to "transition away from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and multiple other countries were determined this would not happen again.

Growing momentum for change

At the same time, a expanding group of countries were similarly resolved that progress on this issue was crucially important. They had created a initiative that was gathering growing support and made it evident they were ready to stand their ground.

Less wealthy nations desperately wanted to make progress on securing economic resources to help them manage the increasingly severe impacts of climate disasters.

Breaking point

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to leave and cause breakdown. "We were close for us," commented one energy minister. "I considered to walk away."

The pivotal moment happened through talks with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, key negotiators separated from the main group to hold a closed-door meeting with the lead Saudi negotiator. They pressed wording that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

Rather than explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably approved the wording.

Participants showed visible relief. Cheers erupted. The agreement was completed.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took another small step towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a uncertain, insufficient step that will barely interrupt the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a important shift from complete stagnation.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Complementing the subtle acknowledgment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a plan to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be largely a optional undertaking led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to stay within the 1.5C limit was likewise deferred to next year
• Developing countries obtained a tripling to $120bn of annual finance to help them adapt to the impacts of environmental crises
• This amount will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in polluting businesses move toward the sustainable sector

Varied responses

While our planet approaches the brink of climate "tipping points" that could devastate environments and throw whole regions into crisis, the agreement was insufficient as the "major breakthrough" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the correct path, but given the severity of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," stated one climate expert.

This imperfect deal might have been the best attainable, given the international tensions – including a American leader who shunned the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the increasing presence of rightwing populism, ongoing conflicts in different locations, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the fossil fuel giants – were at last in the spotlight at these negotiations," comments one policy convener. "There is no turning back on that. The political space is accessible. Now we must convert it to a genuine solution to a safer world."

Major disagreements revealed

Even as nations were able to applaud the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted major disagreements in the sole international mechanism for confronting the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are agreement-dependent, and in a era of global disagreements, agreement is progressively challenging to reach," observed one senior UN official. "I cannot pretend that Cop30 has delivered everything that is needed. The difference between our current position and what evidence necessitates remains dangerously wide."

If the world is to avert the most severe impacts of climate breakdown, the global discussions alone will prove insufficient.